NBR PREDIX

im am currently updating the template of my website so the changes and tweakings would go in th blog for now.

NBR will kick off the awards season tomorrow and i am a bit excited. But predicting NBR seems hard because they seem to have a very different taste than the oscar. NBR win doesn't translate to Oscar win but a NBR win can sometimes translate to Oscar contender. Like last year's Good Night and Good Luck and 2004's Finding Neverland (and also 2003 and so on). They might not set up a serious contender (see Gong Li last year) but sometimes they give us the locks (Jamie Foxx in Ray)...

The NBR seem to have a certain liking for either literary pedigree (Mystic River, The Hours) or artsy films (Moulin Rouge, Good NIght and Good LUck) or biopics (The Hours, Finding Neverland, Good Night and Good Luck [biopic?]). So this year I am predicting...

Best Picture:
Predicted Winner: The Queen (directed by Stephen Frears)
Why? though not artsy nor a literary pedigree but this falls under the Biopic category. Hell this is even better than Finding Neverland. But it is good nonetheless plus nottomention the powerhouse performance by Helen Mirren.
Why Not? They might go musical again this year? Dreamgirls?

Alternates: Dreamgirls, Little Children

Rest of the Top Ten:
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You for Smoking
A Prairie Home Companion
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Babel
United 93


Best Actor:
Predicted Winner: Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Why? I guess the due-for-a-recognition factor comes into mind. plus this category seems too open for now and there are no current locks so I guess O'Toole is a safe choice.
Why Not? The film may not be any good at all and therefore O'Toole will be snubbed again. but i do have a strange feeling that it will be Gosling.
Alternates: Forrest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland), Ryan Gosling (Half-Nelson)

Best Actress:
Predicted Winner: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Why? Top notch performance and plus this will kick off her winning streak for the year. Unless
Why Not? NBR goes for the dark horse such as Meryl Streep...
Alternates: Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)

Best Supporting Actor:
Predicted Winner: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Why? This is the comeback of the year! (i think) and the NBR will award him for finally making a good film for a change.
Why Not? too flashy? or they might finally stop the category confusion for the departed

Alternates: Brad Pitt (Babel), Jack Nicholson (The Departed)

Best Supporting Actress:
Predicted Winner: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Why? This category is very very weak this year plus NBR loves to give awards to somewhat those not very known. see Gong Li or Hope Davis
Why Not? too fresh?

Alternates: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Meryl Streep (A Prairie Home Companion)

Best Director:
Predicted Winner: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Why? long overdue long long overdue, long overdue
Why not? Eastwood?

Alternates: Clint Eastwood (Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima), Robert Altman (A Prairie Home Companion)

Adapted Screenplay : Little Children
Alternates: Letters from Iwo Jima, Notes on a Scandal

Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine
Alternates: Babel, The Queen

Breakthrough Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
alternates: Adam Beach (Flags of our Fathers)

Breakthrough Actress: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
alternates: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Keke Palmer (Akeelah and the Bee), Gretchen Mol (The Notorious Bettie Page), Shareeka Epps (Half Nelson)

Best Animated Film: Happy Feet
alternates: Monster House, Cars

Best Foreign Film: The Lives of Others
Alternates: Curse of the Golden Flower, Volver

Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth
Alternates: Shut up and Sing, Jesus Camp

Best Ensemble Cast: Babel
alternates: Little Miss Sunshine, The Departed

given my NBR prediction track record i will not be amazed if i got this all wrong. my personal best year was 2004... where i got all of em top ten right and the actors right too and murky down on

thats all for now guys... tomorrow Golden Globe Predictions...